Lush Gutters

“If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”

Mike McDermott (Matt Damon), Rounders, 1998

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The first four weeks of the ProMax Royal Draft have played out like the opening hands at a high-stakes poker tournament final table. We’ve had a month now in which to study each other’s hands, weigh up our options, gauge the approach our opponents, and figure out our next moves.

Stick or twist? Wait it out? Or start betting?

Some will have to bluff pretty convincingly to weasel out of the bum hands they’ve dealt themselves. Others have drawn aces. Yet most are close to completing a flush, and are looking for that last diamond.

What is everyone willing to gamble?

The ProMax Royal Draft – League Standings: GW4

Rank – Team/Manager – Total Pts

1	Erik Ten Haggen Dasz Amy Worthington	213
2	Lion El FC Elys Sargunar	205
3	FC Dodge Max Selby	181
4	Wolf at the door Scott Worthington	167
5	Solid as a Roca Nial Taylor	166
6	Batman’s Chalupas Jessi Parker	164
7	PreMix Crassic Gland Tom Barklamb	155

For the first few weeks, the card table has been pretty quiet. At this stage of the season, reinforcing through free agency is the most obvious play, and perhaps unsurprisingly most managers have opted simply to sift through the discard pile. The early weeks always throw up a surprise star or two, and there were a handful of face-cards among the unclaimed. The current top three all picked out an early freebie: Gross, Saliba, and Rodrigo were eagerly scooped up before GW2, and each paid off immediately. But by the end of GW4 the deck has been picked pretty clean. It seems the only way forward now is to start striking up some deals.

So, how’s it looking from where I’m sat?

Only Kruls and Grosses

I figured in a draft format there are two types of manager: the quick and the dead.

There aren’t any captains in this format, which means it’ll be all the harder to overhaul a deficit. In both the World Championship and Classic Grand, your armband selection can transform a gameweek. Take Ryann’s GW4; she had a choice – bet on Haaland, or trust in Jesus? She couldn’t have known it, but the call would be worth sixteen extra points. She went with Haaland, and hit the jackpot. Had she gone with Jesus, she would be three places lower in both leagues. String together enough weeks like that and you can make up ground on anyone in double quick time.

But in the ProMax Royal Draft, that particular ace ain’t up anyone’s sleeve. Without the ability to play your strongest card twice, catching up takes double the time. You need a full hand, pronto, and if someone beats you to the cards you want, you ain’t ever getting your hands on ’em, at least not without forking over something precious. If you’re snoozing, you’re losing.

So I got to tinkering. However, my winnings have only been sufficient to cover my losses. I picked up Rodrigo, who got me thirty points, but discarded Bernardo, who has since bagged twenty-three. I exchanged Coutinho for Dasilva, and then Dasilva for Rashford, but in their time with FC Dodge they all turned out to be worth the same (i.e. nothing). Keeping de Gea instead of swapping in Raya cost me some spare change, but getting in Welbeck for Scammacca covered the tab. Overall I’m up, but not by much.

It hasn’t helped that I’ve folded a few winnings hands. I’ve seen hauls for Gabriel, Dier, and Veltman stranded on the bench. Maddison has been worth his weight in gold, but I’ve left fourteen of his nineteen points on the sidelines. Seems it’s so easy to call your own bluff.

But the biggest pay-offs have been courtesy of the three Kings I dealt myself at the very beginning: Mo Salah, Ivan Perisic, and Gabriel. These three alone have accounted for over a third of my points, enough for a respectable third in the table. However, FC Dodge are already a troubling thirty-two points behind Amy Worthington’s appallingly named …

… (*sigh*)…

…. Eric Ten … Haggen Dasz …

…

… god dammit, Amy.

Anyway, thirty-two already feels like a pretty sizeable advantage. As I mentioned earlier, I wasn’t the only one gobbling up freebies. As we approach GW5 the pile of free agents has been picked clean of all the bargains. Of all the currently fit forwards, the top undrafted pick is a fella called Brennan Johnson of newly promoted Nottingham Forest. If he walked up to me in the street and started doing the Charleston, I’d have no idea who he was. Do you know what he looks like?

It was clear that if I wanted to build a stack, I’d have to start doin’ some deals.

Schlupp and Take My Money!

My first call was to Scotty. I figure he’ll do me a deal, yeh, so I sez to Scotty, I sez, “You, uhh, you want summa that Rodrigo lad?” And Scotty sez, “Oh yeh, oo’d ya want for ‘im?”, and I sez, “I want Stuuuhling, innit.”

So ee finks abaaht it for a bit, and then ee forks ‘im over. Proper lush. Nice lad, that Scott.

Anyway, by the end of the day I’d offloaded Mason Mount to Nial in exchange for Alain Saint-Maximin, and squeezed Pascal Gross out of Amy’s fingers for the loss of one Marcus Rashford. Now I know how Wall Street traders must feel. The rush was intoxicating! Once I started it was hard to stop. I’d still be at the market had the clock not run out. Some managers were more stubborn than others; I couldn’t get Tom to part with Son. With the trade deadline gone, all other business will have to wait. All that’s left now is to see if I turn a profit. Hopefully I didn’t sell too low…

Let’s see how the cards are falling for the others.

The Hause Always Wins

Amy Worthington has kept her cards close to her chest, and it’s paid off handsomely. Her only action in the transfer market was to bring in Pascal Gross, who produced immediate dividends. James and Trippier have kept up a steady income, and whilst her midfield has largely misfired her fowards have struck gold, combining for a staggering eighty-two points across only four gameweeks. Last weekend alone, Haaland, Firmino, and Adams scored forty-one points betweem them, a whopping fourteen more than all eleven of Tom Barklamb’s PreMix Crassic Gland. Two other teams could only match that total. That’s some serious firepower.

However, this week she traded away Gross to Max Selby, in exchange for Marcus Rashford. If Gross starts to sputter out, and Ten Hag can get the best out of a lad eager to prove he’s worth a spot in Gareth Southgate’s England team, then Amy will look like a genius. But will the arrival of new winger Antony, who spent two years at Ajax with United’s current boss, limit Rashford’s game time? Has he really improved enough after a torrid season under Solskjaer and Rangnick? Time will tell.

Elys Sargunar, in a heartwarming expression of loyalty, has put all his eggs in his favourite basket. He began the season with a team packed with his Arsenal lads; Jesus, Saka, Martinelli, and Odegaard started the party, and Saliba and Nketiah have since arrived with more booze. Fortunately for Lion El FC, it’s turning into an absolute rager, with Arsenal currently top of the Premier League with four wins from four. Well over half of Elys’ overall tally of 205 points has come courtesy of Arteta’s boys. Swaggering cameos from Sancho and van Dijk have sweetened the deal, Cucarella’s switch to Chelsea was a huge bonus, and with Arsenal’s form Elys has put himself in a great position to fight for that top spot. However, a slump for the Gunners would spell disaster. Would he stick with his boys, or cash out? Elys will just be hoping the good times keep on rolling!

Scott Worthington, in fourth place, has been steadily improving. Each week has yielded more points than the last: Harry Kane has started strongly, and the procurement of Jack Harrison has been a success. Yet Scott is proving his own worst enemy; the twenty points left on the substitutes bench in GW4 alone matches the amount that Harrison has acquired since joining Wolf at the Door. Perhaps he’s not been assisted by the fact that a good chunk of his team (Gundogan, Stones, Azpilicueta, Iheanacho, and Antonio) are not guaranteed starters. In any case, he’s won as much as he’s lost, and subsequently sits square in the middle of the table. He’s two points closer to the bottom than to the team above him. If he wants to exert himself, he’ll have to hope that Rodrigo, picked up from FC Dodge for the low, low price of one Raheem Sterling, continues his fine start to the season.

Nial Taylor has endured an imbalanced start. He sits in fifth place, despite the fact that his midfield has scored one-hundred-and-twelve points. That’s twenty-one points more than the next best midfield (Elys), and sixty-eight more than those of league-leader Amy Worthington. So what gives? The problem, as you may have guessed, is everything else. In four gameweeks, his forwards have earned him fewer points than Erling Haaland got last week in one game against Crystal Palace. His defence has picked up a measly three clean sheets and a single bonus point all season, and Allison is being outscored by fourteen other goalkeepers. He’s spent the bulk of his transfer activity trying to recruit a viable front three, but to no avail: Calvert-Lewin, Alvarez, Vardy, and Bamford have all come and gone. Yet the back five have stayed put. Will the addition of Mason Mount, swapped out to FC Dodge in exchange for the lively Alain Saint-Maximin, help his cause?

Jessi Parker is classic Team Whack-a-Mole. His players seem to net either double-figures, or diddly squat. Mostly the latter. Parker could, with some justification, blame his misfortunes on drawing the short straw in the draft; by the time his first turn came, all the premium midfielders and forwards were gone. He carted off Trent and Cancelo with picks seven and eight, but so far between them they’ve earned only five more points than Brighton’s Pascal Gross has on his own, and only twelve more than Roberto Firmino got in less than seventy minutes against Bournemouth. And like Scotty, Jessi also struggles with getting in his own way: Parker has left twenty of Aleksandar Mitrovic’s twenty-five points on the bench (though he did have him in when he missed a penalty, got booked, and scored -1). But there’s life in the old dog yet! Jessi stayed sharp enough to capitalise on Max Selby’s mistaken impression that Bernardo was on the decline, winning himself twenty-two points in two games. Parker is often beaten to the punch – when it comes to waivers, his requests have been denied just as often as they’ve been accepted – but his completed swaps have all paid off. Clearly Jessi has a nose for a deal. I’d keep my eye on Geezo’s Geezers.

And finally, there’s Tom Barklamb, on whom lady luck is lavishing scorn. Darwin began in serious style… until he was suspended for three games. Koulibaly had a great start… until he too was sent off. Zaha kicked off the season like a man possessed… until his knee injury. Calum Wilson bagged attacking returns in each of his first three games… until his hamstring went. Mahrez looked set for a run in City’s midfield…. but has only once made it past sixty minutes. Of his five transfers, only the acquisition of Lewis Dunk has even remotely paid off. Worst of all, Son Heung-Min – second-highest points scorer in all of FPL last season, joint winner of the Premier League golden boot, and Tom’s first-round draft pick – has been absolutely nowhere. He has as many points as Fulham’s Bobby De Cordova-Reid. He’s currently being outscored by Miguel Almiron. This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. And yet despite propping up the table, Tom has declined further changes. Perhaps he knows something we don’t. Either way, he needs Son to be rid of his amnesia, and fast!

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And so, into GW5 we go! I’ve bet big on these swaps: Sterling has a good run coming up, as does Gross, and if Saint-Maximin’s hamstring can hold out I can see him torturing a part-time defender like Trent Alexander-Arnold. If they fail, and it turns out I threw away a royal flush, I won’t need telling who the sucker is.

Let’s see some cards.